- Arthur Hayes forecasts that Bitcoin must surpass $70,000 and Ether $4,000 for the altcoin season to start
- The altcoin rally could be postponed to 2025 if Bitcoin and Ether do not reach these critical price points
- Solana might reach $250 in the next altcoin season, though its impact won’t match that of Bitcoin and Ether
It looks like the highly anticipated altcoin boom known as “altseason,” might not happen until 2025. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, says this delay has a connection to Bitcoin and Ether prices. Hayes thinks that for smaller cryptocurrencies to take off, these two big players need to reach certain important price points first.
Bitcoin and Ether’s Struggle
As recently reported, the market rally for altcoins, or “altseason,” might be postponed until 2025 due to the current price levels of Bitcoin and Ether. For the altcoin market to start its upward trend, both Bitcoin and Ether need to surpass important psychological thresholds, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom Fund.
In a briefing on August 12, Hayes mentioned: “Altseason will only return after Bitcoin and Ether decisively break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively […] The combination of a Bitcoin and Ether rally, fueled by dollar liquidity towards the end of the year, will create a solid foundation for a sexy shitcoin soirée to come back.”
Right now, Bitcoin and Ether are recovering from a $510 billion sell-off that hit the crypto market last week, pushing both cryptocurrencies to correct towards February lows. Bitcoin has slipped below a key post-halving growth trajectory, standing under $63,000, but bouncing back before the end of 2024 could put the asset on track to hit $100,000, based on previous cycles.
Hayes: Bitcoin’s Next Stop—$100,000
Hayes is optimistic about Bitcoin, predicting it will surpass $100,000 during this cycle. This surge is expected to be driven mainly by U.S. Treasury bill (T-bill) issuance, which could inject new liquidity into the crypto markets.
Hayes explained: “Taking Janet Yellen’s word for it, we know $301 billion in T-bills will be issued by the end of the year. If this holds true, Bitcoin will quickly recover from the dip caused by the yen’s strength. The next stop for Bitcoin is $100,000.”
However, Bitcoin is currently struggling to get above the psychological $60,000 mark, and ETF inflows into BTC are still stagnating.
Will Solana Reach $250 During the Next Altseason?
The Solana token, currently the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, might reach $250 during the next altcoin season. According to Hayes, if Bitcoin surpasses the $70,000 psychological barrier, it could drive more investment into Solana:
“Even SOL will rise above $250, but the wealth effect of a Solana pump won’t be nearly as powerful as that of Bitcoin and Ether, given their relative market caps.”
Still, Solana’s price is down 42% from its all-time high of $259, reached in November 2021—almost three years ago.
Conclusion
To sum up, Arthur Hayes’ predictions suggest that for a significant altcoin rally to start, Bitcoin and Ether need to hit crucial price levels. Until these thresholds are breached, the long-awaited altseason might be on hold.
It will be interesting to see how Bitcoin and Ethereum evolve to determine if and when the altcoin season will finally kick off.
