Bitcoin Falls Below $70k in New Month Ahead of Upcoming Halving

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Anticipation Rises as Bitcoin Dips Below $70k Ahead of Halving Event

Bitcoin’s recent fall below the $70,000 mark breaks its period of stability ahead of the upcoming halving event.
As the halving event nears, the market sees increased implied volatility and inflated funding rates for BTC and ETH futures.
Positive inflows into Bitcoin ETFs signal a potential shift in investor sentiment in the run-up to the halving.

Bitcoin has taken a downturn below the $70,000 mark as April begins, stirring up market anticipation ahead of the much-awaited Bitcoin halving event. This shift comes after a period of stability where Bitcoin was trading above $70k, with Ethereum also maintaining a strong position above $3600 as of Monday.

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Bitcoin’s Price Movement Below $70,000 Threshold

In the lead-up to the halving, Bitcoin and Ethereum began the trading week relatively flat, a pattern observed across many major financial centers that remained closed for the Easter weekend. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin hovered around $70,000 while Ethereum traded near $3600.

Jun-Young Heo, a derivatives trader at Singapore-based Presto Labs, noted in an email interview with CoinDesk that BTC and ETH exhibited calmer movements last week compared to the volatility seen in other weeks of March. He pointed out that the weekly realized volatility for these cryptocurrencies fell below 50%. However, with the Bitcoin halving event anticipated around April 20, the implied volatility of front-month options remains significantly elevated, soaring above 75%.

Market Volatility and Futures Trading in Focus

Funding rates for cryptocurrency futures also present an inflated picture. He remarked that major exchanges recorded funding rates between 6bps and 8bps for large-cap perpetual futures. Additionally, the global open interest for BTC and ETH perpetual futures has reached an impressive $35 billion. This scenario suggests that the markets may soon enter a more volatile regime, especially as the halving event draws closer.

QCP Capital, in a telegram note, highlighted the recent rally in Bitcoin before the long weekend. This uptick was partly attributed to positive inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, amounting to $243.5 million on March 27. Coinglass data further indicated that this positive trend continued on March 28, with an additional $182 million inflow.

Investor Sentiment and Bitcoin ETFs Ahead of Halving

The Bitcoin halving event, a crucial moment in the cryptocurrency’s lifecycle, typically occurs every four years and is a process that halves the reward for mining new blocks. This event is often associated with increased price volatility and heightened market interest. As the halving nears, traders and investors closely watch the market for potential shifts in Bitcoin’s value and overall market dynamics.

In conclusion, the Bitcoin market currently experiences a mix of stability and anticipation. While the recent drop below $70k marks a notable change from the stable trading the previous week, the upcoming halving event keeps investors and traders on their toes. The elevated implied volatility and high funding rates point towards a potentially tumultuous period ahead in the crypto markets, as stakeholders closely follow the developments leading up to the halving.

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