- Trump’s victory has already pushed Bitcoin to $74K
- Bitcoin broke through $75K and later a record $76.1K today, but corrected to $74.7K
- Also, a lot depends on the Fed and a 0.25% rate cut in the next cycle
- Analysts’ opinions on the current dynamics are not entirely even, although they are rather optimistic
Donald Trump’s victory boosted Bitcoin, taking it to $74K immediately after the election results, and with several attempts to break through $76K today.
Also, the crypto market anticipates a 0.25% interest rate cut decision from the Fed as a continuation of the down cycle, which could boost Bitcoin even more.
However, the dollar strengthened by 2%, and there are also questions as to what the impact on the markets will be ahead of Trump’s likely desire to continue the trade war with China and if there is a chance that he will try to fire SEC Chair, Gary Gensler.
Details on Bitcoin Dynamics and Market Expectations
The first key event has already happened, namely, Trump’s victory, which lifted Bitcoin to the long-awaited $74K, and later today, it experienced several upswings.
More specifically, Bitcoin rose to $75K, and reached a 24H volume of $97.5B, but corrected sharply to $73.3K.
Further, it rose to a record $76.1K, reached a 24H volume of $115.4B, and also experienced a correction, now trading at $74.7K.
QCP Capital traders said:
“BTC has now navigated three election cycles since its inception in 2009, each followed by rallies to new highs, with prices never dipping back to pre-election levels. The dollar surged 1.2% to reach July highs of 105, with yields also climbing as markets anticipate stronger economic growth and increased fiscal spending. We expect this bullish momentum to hold strong as we head into 2025.”
That said, the entire crypto market and the market in general is in anticipation of the next leg of the Fed’s 0.25% interest rate cut cycle, which could also provide additional movement.
Min Jung, a research analyst at Presto Research said:
“A 25bps rate cut is widely anticipated, with the market pricing in a 96.8% probability of such a move (according to FedWatch). However, the rates market has been signaling uncertainty, evidenced by the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.48%, its highest level over four months. This increase reflects expectations that a Trump election win could lead to higher deficits and inflation. Therefore, attention will be focused on Powell’s press conference for insights, particularly since November does not include a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) update.”
And yet, analysts’ opinions differ, which is not surprising in the context of Donald Trump’s dramatic initiatives and possible Fed actions. For example, Augustine Fan, dead of Insights at SOFA said:
“A hawkish tilt on Thursday’s FOMC would be an unwelcome development for the market, but an insistence on staying on the current dovish path would also risk a potential yield tantrum as bond buyers go on a buyer’s strike into year-end. Furthermore, with China likely to respond with a more aggressive easing policy in light of the tariff-heavy policies from Trump, there appears to be no end to bond supply and we fear that the move higher in USD FX and yields could be a significant risk-dampener at some point.”
Conclusion
We can already see that Bitcoin has revitalized significantly since Donald Trump’s win, but now everything will really depend on his initiatives and key financial institutions like the Fed.
There are a lot of decisions and their consequences waiting for us shortly that will affect the crypto market, financial regulations, and the economy as a whole most pivotally. Stay tuned.
