- Polymarket odds on Trump’s strategic Bitcoin reserve are positive
- Odds on the announcement on Jul 31, 2024, have turned positive
- Now odds of the creation of a reserve in the first 100 days are 52%
Donald Trump has just been inaugurated, and Polymarket indicates assumptions on one of his key takes, namely the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
On January 1st the positive odds were only 22%, and after the inauguration, they jumped from 40% to 57%, while the volume is already $2.64M.
Positive odds are 52% at the moment of writing.
More About the Dynamics on Polymarket Regarding the Trump’s SBR
So, we can remember how Polymarket showed itself more accurately than many pools from the very beginning of the presidential election, showing that unexpected red wave. This raised the site’s profile quite noticeably and made much of its content political.
We can also recall a relatively similar event on whether Donald Trump would announce the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and according to the results of Jul 31, 2024, it turned out to be positive.
Now that he has been inaugurated and has taken office – the polling on whether he will create a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the first 100 days of his presidency is getting a lot of attention.
The dynamics of this poll are quite interesting, as the following key points can be highlighted:
- It started with positive odds of 60% on November 7, but dropped very sharply to 31% on the same day and to a record low of 22% on November 10.
- After that we saw bounces, peaking at 45% on November 21, and then bouncing downward until December 14.
- Then jumped up to 40% on December 17, and smoothly declined again to a record low of 22% on January 3.
- After that, however, we saw a peak of 34% on January 7, a slight decline, and a precipitous upward spike to 57% after the inauguration.
- Current positive odds are 53%.
Conclusion
Polymarket is not exhaustive, but it is becoming a more and more important indicator of public opinion and a place where key issues of interest to ordinary people are raised.
This gives a reason to take a closer look at it and take it into account among other indicators. How accurate it will be this time remains to be seen. Be aware and stay tuned.
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