- Trump shows a majority in all the swing states
- The odds of him winning them are 97% to 99% percent on Kalshi
- As well as the odds on his victory 99%, and Republican victory in Senat and House 99% and 81% respectively
Just yesterday, Donald Trump had already unexpectedly begun to dominate Kamala Harris in the presidential race across swing states, but today odds of his victory have become absolute, according to data from Kalshi.
North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania give Trump between 97% and 99% at this point.
Tangentially, Kalshi shows that the odds on Trump and Harris back on Nov. 3 were 49.2 vs. 50.8% respectively, but started to diverge and became 56% vs. 44% on Nov. 5, but soared on Election Day to 99% and 1%.
More on Swing States and Overall Numbers
This morning’s most striking results have come from swing states. According to betting data from Kalshi, Donald Trump has shown absolute dominance.
The odds stand at Georgia 99%, Arizona 98%, Nevada 99%, Wisconsin 99%, Michigan 98%, and Pennsylvania 99%, leaving Kamala Harris far behind.
Meanwhile, Reuters data on vote counts suggests the lead is less dramatic but still clear, with Trump holding majorities in states he has already won, like Georgia at 50.7% and Pennsylvania at 50.7%, and showing leads in the others: Arizona at 50.8%, Nevada at 51.4%, Wisconsin at 50.9%, and Michigan at 51.1%.
It’s also worth noting that betting odds on Republican control of the Senate and House remain strong, at 99% and 94%, respectively.
Conclusion
Overall, such decisive odds seen early on Election Day may be well-founded, as winning majorities in all the swing states is highly indicative—especially given that Georgia and Pennsylvania flipped in this election, changing their support to the opposite party compared to the last election.
In the near future, we’ll see the results and final figures that tell the whole story. Stay tuned.
