- The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model predicts -2.7% growth, sparking concerns of a U.S. recession in 2025.
- Economists expect mixed Q1 GDP results, with forecasts ranging from 0.3% to 2.4% growth amid stagflation fears.
- The official Q1 GDP report drops tomorrow, with markets bracing for volatility and a possible negative print.
The U.S. economy is facing unprecedented challenges in 2025. As fears of a recession grow larger by the day—impacted by the trade war with China—the latest economic reading of the day shows a potential glimpse of what to expect by tomorrow’s economic growth reading for the first three months of the year.
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Signals Trouble
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model, a metric that tracks real-time economic data to estimate Gross Domestic Product growth, came out today, signaling a grim outlook for the United States. The GDPnow missed the -2.5% forecast by two basis points, coming in at -2.7%.
While economists had broadly expected a softer GDP reading—the newfound chance of a full-on negative print would put the Trump administration under severe pressure as the chances of a recession in 2025 intensify.
There is a chance that today’s Atlanta Fed GDPNow print is wrong, though. Albeit not very likely.
The model itself acknowledges uncertainty—its forecast range spans from slightly above 1% growth to just under 1% decline, based on different economic models. This means the final Q1 GDP report could surprise in either direction.
Q1 GDP Growth Tomorrow: What to Expect
Major financial platforms have reported conflicting estimates for Q1 GDP growth:
- CNBC’s survey of economists predicts 0.3% growth, with stagflation concerns persisting.
- Investing.com initially forecasted 2.4%, but revisions suggest an actual reading closer to 0.4%.
- Federal Reserve policymakers have acknowledged the weakened consumer spending and rising import costs, both of which may drag the economy into near-zero or negative growth territory.
Recession Fears Loom
If the official GDP figure falls below expectations, it could fuel recession speculation, trigger market volatility, and pressure the Federal Reserve on its rate-cut decisions. Investors are keeping a close watch on Treasury yields, inflation trends, and employment figures for broader signals of economic resilience.
What’s Next?
The Commerce Department will release its official Q1 GDP numbers at 8:30 AM ET on April 30. Markets will react swiftly, and analysts will assess whether growth has truly stalled or if there’s room for recovery in the coming months.
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